Annual expenditures for improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes are expected to soften in 2026, according to the听听released today听by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA projects that year-over-year spending for home renovation and repair will increase by just 1.2 percent by the second quarter of 2026.
鈥淲eakness in the current housing market is expected to have a dampening effect on home improvement spending,鈥� says Rachel Bogardus Drew, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. 鈥淪lowing construction starts and remodeling permitting activity, which are key factors in predicting future remodeling expenditures, are also putting downward pressure on home improvement growth.鈥�
鈥淚t will be important to keep an eye on whether the housing market shows any sign of rebound in the second half of the year, to assess if this slowdown is the beginning of a more significant downturn,鈥� says Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Center. 鈥淗owever, federal cuts to incentives for home energy improvements could听spur an increase in remodeling activity in the short term, as homeowners seek to take advantage of programs before they disappear.鈥�
The听听provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in听, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial听.
The LIRA is released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in the third week after each quarter鈥檚 closing.听The next LIRA release date is October 16, 2025.
